Trading oil in 2025: My Q2 outlook from the frontlines

In his latest deep dive, Exness trading expert Antreas Themistokleous shares a sharp, on-the-ground perspective on trading oil in 2025. With supply steadily rising, demand hanging in the balance, and macro forces creating a minefield of risk, Q2 is proving to be a test of skill and agility for oil traders. Get his key levels, market analysis, and strategic takeaways as this high-stakes quarter unfolds.

As a seasoned trading analyst, I’ve seen my fair share of choppy markets, geopolitical shakeups, and wild price action. However, Q2 2025 is shaping up to be a particularly fascinating quarter for those trading commodities such as trading oil in 2025. With political tensions surging, global capital flows shifting dramatically, and oil markets dancing between supply shifts and demand uncertainties, this quarter has offered up a lot of crucial signals.

Let me break down what’s happening now, what’s likely to come next, and where I see potential opportunities and risks as we head deeper into the second quarter of the year.

Key takeaways

1. Is oil supply creeping back faster than expected? February saw a 240,000 bpd (barrels per day) global increase, and OPEC+ is set to unwind 2.2 million bpd in cuts, potentially tipping the balance in Q2.
2. Will Asia’s demand be strong enough to stabilize prices? With 60% of demand growth expected from Asia, weak data from China, and revised forecasts raise serious questions about bullish expectations.
3. Is oil primed to break above key technical levels? Price action is testing a critical resistance zone near 68 USD–70 USD; a breakout here could open the door to a major trend shift.
4. How are tariffs and geopolitics distorting oil markets? US trade tensions and shifting global capital flows are adding new layers of risk to trading oil in 2025, especially for dollar-priced assets.
5. Is low volatility setting the stage for a sharp move? Despite global uncertainty, oil volatility is muted, suggesting the market may be coiling before a breakout or major reversal.

A shifting supply landscape

One of the biggest developments affecting trading oil in 2025 is the subtle but steady return of supply. We’ve seen production rise across several key players. Saudi Arabia nudged output from 8.91 million bpd in December to 8.95 million by February, and while March’s data is still pending, the trend is clearly up. More significantly, global production increased by 240,000 bpd in February alone, partly driven by Kazakhstan’s Tengiz expansion project.

But supply dynamics go beyond volume. The OPEC+ meeting on 3 March reaffirmed a gradual unwinding of 2.2 million bpd in voluntary cuts starting 1 April. This kind of “flexible restoration” adds a layer of uncertainty. While it appears measured, it could shift depending on how market conditions evolve — and that’s a factor I’m watching when trading oil in 2025.

In addition, the United States is pumping oil at record levels, and the supply side definitely feels top-heavy. However, it’s not just about barrels—it’s about what those barrels mean in today’s economic and political climate.

Demand is there, but it’s complicated

Demand growth isn’t absent, but it’s fragile. The IEA expects global oil demand to rise just over 1 million bpd this year, with nearly 60% coming from Asia. On paper, that looks promising. China and India are leading the charge as usual, especially with China announcing stimulus plans to boost consumption.

But here’s the catch: recent growth data from Asia has been disappointing, and earlier projections have been revised downward. That makes this a game of conditional optimism. If China’s stimulus gains traction and Indian transport and industry keep up their pace, we could see decent support for oil. If not, the supply-demand balance could tip bearish again—something I’m factoring heavily into my strategies while trading oil in 2025.

Technical view: Range-bound but poised to move

From a technical standpoint, oil has been moving inside a clear declining channel since mid-January. That’s significant. Channels like this give me clean boundaries to work with. So far in Q2, oil has tested the support of the lower band of the Bollinger bands and has since corrected to the upside. Currently, the price is trading in the dynamic resistance area between the 38.2% and the 50% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level. That’s a classic technical confluence.

At the time of writing, the major technical resistance is around 66 USD, comprising 61.8% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-day moving average area. If the price breaks above this resistance level, I’m targeting the next level at around 70 USD. That’s where multiple indicators converge: the Bollinger Band’s upper limit, the moving average crossover zone, and the medium-term high of the latest major swing. It’s a juicy technical cluster.

But if that resistance holds and price rolls over, I’m eyeing 60 USD as the first level of support. It’s a psychological level and  23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement level. This zone could provide a solid bounce point for range-bound traders like myself looking to capitalize on oscillations rather than breakouts in Q2.

That’s why anyone trading oil in 2025 needs to stay nimble. We’re in a market where the technicals are tight, and the fundamentals are full of landmines.

Macroeconomic backdrop: Tariffs and tensions

Politics is playing a huge role this year, and it’s not going away anytime soon. President Trump’s tariff barrage against Canada, Mexico, the EU, and China is causing ripple effects throughout every major asset class—oil included. Trade friction tends to reduce business confidence and investment, which can weigh on demand forecasts for oil.

At the same time, rising military budgets and growing inflation concerns in Europe are shifting capital flows dramatically. Europe’s 30-year bund yields have spiked, and the euro has gained strength, partially at the dollar’s expense. This creates implications for oil, which is priced in dollars globally. A weakening dollar usually supports oil prices, but the interplay is complex, especially with so many macro crosswinds.

As someone actively trading oil in 2025, I’ve found these macro factors can’t be ignored. Even if supply and demand seem balanced on the surface, the political backdrop can quickly skew sentiment.

Market sentiment and volatility: Low but dangerous

One thing I’ve noticed recently is the mismatch between market sentiment and actual volatility. Despite all the uncertainty, volatility in oil markets remains relatively subdued. That’s often the calm before the storm.

The stochastic oscillator is neutral, indicating no strong momentum in either direction. But that’s not necessarily a comfort — it could also mean that the market is coiling for a breakout.

And here’s what I’m telling my clients and fellow traders: don’t let this lull, lull you. Trading oil in 2025 is all about being prepared for rapid sentiment shifts. When volatility is artificially low, sudden news or data surprises can produce much sharper moves than usual.

Final thoughts

As we push deeper into Q2, my view is clear: trading oil in 2025 is all about agility, context, and discipline. Supply is inching higher, demand is cautiously optimistic, and the technical landscape is giving us structure, but not certainty.

I’m keeping my eyes on 70 USD and 65 USD as key inflection points. I’m also staying tuned to political developments, especially around tariffs and OPEC+ decisions. And I’m also bracing for the moment when volatility wakes up and makes a big move inevitable.

This quarter may not be defined by fireworks yet, but make no mistake—the fuse is lit. And if you’re trading oil in 2025 like I am, now is the time to sharpen your strategies, protect your capital, and stay ready to move fast.

Let’s see where this one goes.