The rundown on weekly economic data and impact on crude oil trading

Michael Stark explores how weekly economic data, such as API, EIA, and rig counts, shape crude oil trading strategies, their benefits, and limitations.

Trading crude oil CFDs involves a wide range of strategies across timeframes and with a variety of indicators and fundamental approaches. Much of the time, crude oil traders focus mainly on overall supply and demand and changes in these, economic conditions, key economic indicators like PMIs or GDP, and meetings of OPEC+. In this article, I’ll be looking specifically at how weekly economic data, including oil inventories and related reports, can influence trading decisions. I’ll also outline my view on why regular data, stocks, and other instruments can be important for trading oil and highlight some of their limitations.

In the latest episode of Exness Trading Talks, we spoke about reading markets’ reactions to crude oil shifts. Antreas and I discussed many of the key factors driving oil’s movements and how, in turn, oil can influence other releases and instruments. This article zooms in specifically on weekly economic data, primarily oil-specific releases. Before reading, though, here’s the summary of the episode and a link if you’ve not watched it yet.

Overview of weekly economic data for oil

There are two main American releases affecting crude oil directly, which come out every week:

• Weekly change in crude oil stocks from the American Petroleum Institute (API) 
• The same from the Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Baker Hughes also releases its count of active oil rigs in the USA every Friday night, but this is a significantly less important release most of the time because it doesn’t track how much each rig is producing, only the number of rigs. Traders usually concentrate more on the API and EIA’s data.

Both the API and EIA’s weekly oil inventories reports track changes in total crude oil stocks in the USA. The API’s stocks usually come out on Tuesday evenings GMT, and the EIA’s on Wednesday afternoons GMT. 

Some traders consider the EIA’s data more reliable than the API’s, which is why, in my opinion, somewhat simplistic: the API is a trade body, whereas the EIA is a governmental agency, so effectively, they’re measuring differently and for different purposes. I think that the overall direction and level of surprise in both releases are usually more important than any discrepancy, unless it’s extremely large.

Many traders also watch other broader economic calendar releases—such as the global services PMI, global manufacturing PMI, or the new housing price index—since they can shape expectations for demand and therefore oil.

Weekly stocks in practice

The chart for weekly stocks, in this case from the EIA, looks something like this:

The EIA’s numbers for stocks are the most important weekly economic data for crude oil.

The most obvious approach to trading the EIA’s oil weekly data releases is to scalp the report, similar to how traders approach the NFP for gold or forex majors. If stocks build up, you might expect the price of oil to decline immediately afterward, while declining stocks might mean a higher price for oil.

However, this approach is very unreliable: it’s quite common to see the market reacting the opposite of how it “should.” That’s because commercial traders often use higher liquidity around the EIA’s stocks to find better entries and exits in the medium to longer term rather than simply reacting to the release. Market reactions can also depend on wider financial markets, from equities to currencies, and on factors like interest rate decisions or consumer confidence that influence energy demand.

Equally, oil as an industrial commodity is fundamentally different from gold in that companies are storing oil to refine and use it for something. Much of the time, crude oil producers can simply pump more or less to deal, to some degree, with short-term changes in demand.

I don’t think scalping or day trading weekly economic data specific to crude oil works, but this is just my opinion. If you’ve found a way of doing that, that’s great, keep going if it’s working for you. However, I do think that it can be very helpful to compare the EIA’s crude stocks with what else is going on in the market.

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Case study: Weekly economic data and the Twelve-Day War

The Twelve-Day War, also known as the Israeli-Iranian War, started on 13 June 2025 with Israel attacking a wide range of targets across Iran, ostensibly to delay the progress of Iran’s nuclear program. Oil had already been gaining in the run-up to open hostilities and spiked soon after headlines showing airstrikes started being published:

The four-hour chart of oil during the Twelve-Day War. I think the weekly economic data helped to find signals, although it obviously took a backseat to news of the war.

Significantly higher tension and war in the Gulf almost always drive volatility and movement for oil, and June 2025 was no exception. Traders expected considerable disruption to production and exports, which could drive prices up since so much of the world’s supply of oil comes from Iran, Iraq, and the Gulf Arab states. Sentiment among some traders also pointed to escalation and possibly even a move by Iran to close the Gulf to shipping. While war headlines dominated, weekly stocks and other official sources of data, such as labor statistics or current account figures, helped traders balance sentiment with fundamentals.

I considered that so unlikely as to be effectively impossible: my assumption at the time was that there’d be a ceasefire allowing both sides to save face sooner or later without any drastic escalation or direct military involvement by Saudi Arabia or other nearby countries; once such a ceasefire was implemented, oil would probably decline sharply.

13 June’s EIA stock change, part of the economic data reports for crude oil, backed up the idea that more gains were possible around its release on 18 June because it showed a larger draw than expected. This was a supporting factor for me to run a profitable trade a bit longer before looking to exit and sell instead around 19-20 June. Regardless of which data says what, I never hold any position for crude oil over the weekend during an unpredictable diplomatic or military situation.

Limitations of weekly economic data for crude oil

For me, the most obvious problem with actively using weekly economic data specific to oil, primarily stocks, is that they only cover the USA. Although the USA is the biggest producer and consumer of oil in the world, depending on how one prefers to measure, this is still a relatively small proportion of overall global demand, so I think it’s hard to decide what to do with primary reference to the EIA.

Another issue is the lag between the point of capture and the actual release of the data, usually five days. If you’re reading this, you know as well as I do that five days can be a very long time for crude oil. Among major instruments, oil historically produces the largest and most frequent gaps over the weekend.

Weekly oil data also competes with other indicators in shaping the economic analysis of demand, from housing price indexes in the USA to global composite PMI figures in Europe and Asia. Despite these limitations, I think it’s helpful to monitor weekly economic data for oil at least every few days if you’re actively trading it. It might not give you any reliable signals in itself, but I find it useful to receive as much context as reasonably possible from the EIA’s stocks and potentially others. Equally, if I see a period of several weeks or even several months when the price of oil reacts how it “should” to stock data, there’s no reason for me not to try scalping such news, assuming I keep the volume manageable and apply an appropriate strategy to manage risk.

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Final thoughts: Economic data: Just one part of the whole for oil

I don’t personally think that weekly economic data is directly useful for trading oil, but it does certainly have indirect uses. Fundamental signals for trading crude oil with economic indicators often come more from overall conditions, supply and demand, and geopolitics than weekly stock reports alone. Other economic indicators like money supply, inflation, or interest rates often carry more weight for decision makers and investors across different countries.

That said, there’s a very wide variety of approaches to trading oil CFDs, perhaps more than any other major commodity, so I’m always eager to explore new possibilities and attitudes. Stay tuned for more articles about oil here on Exness Insights in the future as my colleagues outline their views and experiences. In the meantime, if you’re new to trading commodities, check out this article from Katerina introducing the topic.

Frequently asked questions on oil’s weekly economic data

What’s the main weekly economic data for oil?

In my view, the most important single weekly economic data for oil is the EIA’s stock change, which is usually released on Wednesday afternoons. You might also look at the API’s stock change on Tuesdays and Baker Hughes’ rig count on Fridays. Other weekly economic data, such as initial jobless claims, don’t usually affect oil that much.

How can I trade oil’s weekly economic data?

I think it’s difficult and generally don’t. You can buy draws in stocks and sell builds, but in my experience, this is very unreliable unless you’ve developed some kind of edge or found a reliable way to pinpoint short-term sentiment. That's just my opinion, though.

How can I fit stock and other data into a strategy?

For my personal approaches to swing trading oil, I like to use stock data for context. If, for example,  technical analysis and global tensions suggest buying, I can find support for doing that if American oil stocks are declining more or less consistently, and the opposite can also be true. When there’s a disconnect between different sources, I’m more cautious about trading. I also consider the economic calendar—from CPI releases to central bank announcements—to check if broader conditions match signals from oil-specific data.