Tesla stock price: What’s coming for TSLA in 2025 and beyond

Is the Tesla stock price heading for a major rebound—or another breakdown? Financial journalist Paul Reid explores the market forces, leadership drama, and competitive pressure shaping TSLA’s future—vital insights for anyone investing in Tesla share price movements in 2025.

For traders tracking the automotive sector, few tickers command attention like TSLA.Once the undisputed king of electric vehicles, Tesla now faces a gauntlet of challenges that demand a meticulous eye. This article offers a deep dive for traders, presenting observations from recent events to help you build sound foundations for your own Tesla stock price forecasts.

Understanding the forces shaping the Tesla stock price in 2025 is essential for traders navigating today's volatile market landscape.

Key takeaways

1. Tesla's dominance in the EV market faces unprecedented pressure. Monitor sales figures from competitors like BYD and legacy automakers closely.
2. Elon Musk's public actions, controversies, and divided attention can trigger immediate and significant swings in the Tesla stock price. Remain aware of his influence and the associated brand risk.
3. Despite the hype, scrutinize Tesla's underlying financials. Pay close attention to delivery numbers, gross margins, and free cash flow.
4. The current Tesla stock price still commands a premium valuation. Future growth, particularly the success of ventures like Robotaxis, needs to materialize convincingly.
5. Geopolitical tensions (e.g., trade tariffs impacting raw materials), macroeconomic factors (e.g., interest rate policies affecting car demand), and shifting consumer sentiment (e.g., changing perceptions of EVs—particularly the environmental impact of their batteries) all influence the broader market and, specifically, TSLA.

Tesla stock price performance in 2025: A bumpy ride

Tesla stock price performance in 2025 has proven to be anything but smooth. The year began with significant headwinds, sending the Tesla stock price on a notable downturn in the first quarter. After closing 2024 at around 403.84 USD, TSLA shares saw substantial erosion.

By early March 2025, reports indicated a year-to-date loss of over a third of its value, positioning it among the worst performers in the S&P500 index (US500). This period saw the Tesla stock price plummet towards a 52-week low of 167.42 USD. This sharp decline also wiped out a substantial portion of Tesla’s market cap, underscoring the stock’s sensitivity to earnings and sentiment.

However, the second quarter brought a degree of recovery. Since April 2025, the Tesla stock price has staged a respectable rebound, gaining nearly 64% from its year-to-date low through late May. Despite this surge, volatility persists.

As of 10 June 2025, TSLA is at 326.09 USD, and its 52-week high is 488.53 USD. This trajectory highlights extreme sensitivity to news and broader market sentiment. Traders must recognize this inherent volatility as a defining characteristic of Tesla stock price movements in 2025. As one of the most volatile stocks on the Nasdaq, Tesla continues to reflect broader investor sentiment and tech sector momentum.

Intensifying competition and a slowing market

Tesla's Q1 2025 delivery numbers paint a concerning picture. The company reported 336,681 vehicle deliveries, marking a 13% year-over-year decline. This miss on expectations immediately weighed on the Tesla stock price.

In Europe, Tesla faces a tough battle. Sales plummeted by an estimated 45% year-over-year in January 2025, with UK sales down 36% in May. China, another vital market, also reports sales declines. Competitors, both established and emerging, are gaining ground. Chinese manufacturers like BYD, which now claims the title of the world's largest EV manufacturer by volume, offer compelling alternatives at competitive price points.

Traditional automotive giants such as Volkswagen, Ford, and General Motors continue to funnel massive resources into their EV divisions, releasing models that directly challenge Tesla's market dominance… although rumors of EV cutbacks are already surfacing.

For traders, this signals a fundamental shift. Tesla no longer operates in a nascent market with minimal rivals; it navigates a highly competitive arena. Slower growth and increased market share erosion translate directly to downward pressure on TSLA.

The 'Musk effect': A double-edged sword for Tesla stock price

Elon Musk’s influence on the Tesla stock price cannot be overstated. He remains intrinsically linked to the brand's identity and its market perception. However, 2025 has showcased the "Musk effect" as a double-edged sword, injecting both risk and volatility into the mix.

The recent, very public discord between Elon Musk and Donald Trump serves as a prime example. This feud, escalating with mutual public criticisms and threats of government contract termination, immediately triggered negative investor sentiment.

Reports indicated a staggering 248 billion USD in Tesla’s market cap was wiped out during the peak of this public spat in early June. Such rapid value destruction highlights the direct correlation between Musk's controversial public actions and the Tesla stock price. Furthermore, Musk's increasingly vocal political stances and controversial opinions have led to what many term as "brand damage."

This alienation of segments of the consumer base, particularly evident in European markets, directly impacts demand for Tesla vehicles. As customers choose to distance themselves from a brand associated with controversy, sales suffer.

Leadership distractions also concern investors. With Musk juggling numerous high-profile ventures, critics question his dedicated focus on Tesla's core automotive business. This fragmented attention, perceived or real, can erode investor confidence, directly affecting the Tesla stock price.

Traders must factor in this unique, unpredictable element of leadership risk. Musk's persona remains a significant, albeit volatile, determinant of the Tesla stock price.

Rental fleets: A strategic retreat impacting the Tesla stock price

The decisions made by major car rental companies in 2025 offer another clear indicator of Tesla's deepening challenges, directly impacting its sales channels and public perception. Companies like Hertz and Sixt, once enthusiastic adopters of large Tesla fleets, have significantly scaled back their commitments or outright canceled orders.

Following its highly publicized 100,000-vehicle Tesla order in late 2021, Hertz made a dramatic reversal. In early 2024, Hertz announced plans to sell off approximately 20,000 EVs, predominantly Teslas, from its US fleet. Their rationale highlighted two critical issues:

• Teslas, and EVs in general often incur significantly higher repair expenses, especially after collisions. Specialized components and labor requirements for EV batteries contribute to prolonged downtime and inflated bills. For a business model reliant on fleet utilization and cost efficiency, these factors proved unsustainable.
• Tesla's aggressive price cuts on new vehicles directly and negatively impacted the resale value of Hertz's existing Tesla fleet. Rental companies depend on the profitable resale of their vehicles, and sudden, drastic depreciation led to substantial financial losses for Hertz.

Similarly, the German rental giant Sixt also began phasing out Teslas from its fleet. Sixt cited similar reasons: poor resale values due to Tesla's price adjustments and higher repair costs. Sixt has since diversified its fleet by significantly increasing orders from other manufacturers.

These strategic retreats by major corporate buyers signal growing pains for Tesla beyond individual consumer choices. They expose the practical operational challenges of integrating large EV fleets. This directly impacts Tesla's sales volume in a crucial B2B segment and influences broader market sentiment. Traders should view these cancellations as tangible evidence of deepening operational and financial pressures, inevitably putting downward pressure on the Tesla stock price.

Battery concerns and their effect on Tesla stock price

Concerns surrounding Tesla's batteries also present long-term influences over TSLA. While Tesla has made strides in battery technology, two issues continue to generate discussion: range degradation and the environmental impact of battery production.

Range degradation

All lithium-ion batteries degrade over time, reducing available range. While Tesla's official stance acknowledges this, and new owners report minimal degradation (around 85-90% retention after significant mileage), older models experiencing sudden drops after software updates have fueled owner frustration. These concerns, even if affecting a small percentage of owners, can influence public perception and used-car market values.

Environmental footprint

The "green" image of EVs often overshadows the environmental impact of battery manufacturing.  Extracting minerals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel carries significant environmental and, in some cases, ethical costs.

Lithium extraction is water-intensive, impacting arid regions. Cobalt mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo raises human rights concerns and causes severe ecological damage. The US Geological Survey provides comprehensive data on critical mineral resources and the potential environmental implications of their extraction.

The manufacturing process for battery cells demands substantial energy, historically often sourced from fossil fuels. This results in a higher initial carbon footprint for an EV compared to an internal Combustion engine. Tesla is investing in cleaner manufacturing processes and recycling, but the upfront environmental cost remains a point of contention for environmentally conscious consumers and investors.

Traders must recognize how such underlying concerns could affect brand perception and, indirectly, the Tesla stock price over extended horizons.

Valuation and the future: Forecasting the Tesla stock price

Forecasting the Tesla stock price requires a clear-eyed assessment of its current valuation against its future prospects. Tesla's valuation remains a persistent point of contention among analysts, especially when compared to other tech and automotive companies listed on the Nasdaq exchange. Despite recent stock price declines, many still view it as "significantly overvalued." Its forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, hovering around 150, dwarfs that of traditional automakers and even much of the broader tech market. This high valuation implies significant future growth, placing immense pressure on the company to deliver meaningful revenue expansion and hit its ambitious targets.

Analyst sentiment remains deeply divided. Some, like JPMorgan, maintain very bearish price targets (e.g., 135 USD), pointing to declining sales, intensifying competition, and Musk's distractions. Others, like ARK Invest, hold extremely bullish long-term outlooks (e.g., 3,000 USD target), largely predicated on the success of Tesla's autonomous ride-hailing "Robotaxi" service.

For investors, the challenge is deciding whether Tesla can justify its valuation with real growth or if too much money is riding on unproven innovations.

Tesla stock price: Is there still bullish potential?

The Robotaxi concept represents a major potential catalyst, with a launch scheduled in June 2025 in Austin, Texas. If successful, it could unlock significant new revenue streams and bring long-term benefits by transforming Tesla's business model from a pure automaker to a mobility service provider.

Keep in mind, Musk has a history of ambitious timelines for Full Self-Driving (FSD) features that have not always materialized as promised. Furthermore, the autonomous vehicle market already features formidable competitors like Alphabet's Waymo and GM's Cruise, both operating in cities and having accumulated millions of autonomous miles.

This means Tesla will not enter a vacuum but a competitive landscape. The success and widespread adoption of Robotaxis are crucial for justifying current and future Tesla stock price valuations.

Recent rumors about Elon Musk and Tesla's groundbreaking new aluminum-ion condensed battery have sparked much discussion. If proven true, this technology could change everything. This concept battery is described as a significant technological breakthrough, potentially offering double the range of current batteries, ultra-fast 15-minute charging, and increased durability at lower costs. If this new battery comes to fruition, it could revolutionize the EV industry and significantly impact TSLA as market sentiment reacts.

If successful, these innovations could save consumers time and money, while opening new high-margin opportunities for Tesla.

Final thoughts

Right now, there’s very little optimism that could trigger a bullish rally in the near future. For the Tesla stock price to genuinely rebound and sustain higher levels, the company must demonstrate robust profitability, growing revenue, and substantial progress in the automotive segment and its other core businesses, not just speculative future ventures.

By focusing on these observations and developments and integrating them into your forecasting models, you can make more informed decisions about the future of Tesla stock price performance. For long-term investors and short-term traders alike, the Tesla stock price remains one of the most closely watched and debated Nasdaq-listed metrics in today’s market. The road ahead for Tesla remains dynamic, demanding continuous vigilance, review, and comparison of the information provided. 

Frequently asked questions about Tesla stock price

What factors are influencing the TSLA stock price in 2025? 

In 2025, the Tesla stock price is influenced by declining deliveries, competition from emerging EV brands, Elon Musk’s public behavior, and broader economic conditions affecting liquidity, funds, and market capitalization.

On which platform is Tesla stock traded, and how can investors access it?

Tesla shares are traded on the Nasdaq exchange and can be accessed through any licensed trading platform, such as the Exness Terminal, that offers CFD trading of US stock instruments and stock indices. You can start trading on a live account or practice first on a risk-free demo trading account.

Why is Tesla stock price volatility a concern for shareholders and funds?

The Tesla stock price remains highly volatile due to leadership unpredictability, innovation uncertainty, and shifting investor sentiment—all of which impact institutional funds, retail shareholders, and long-term fund allocations.

What type of instruments can be used to gain exposure to Tesla stock price movements?

Investors can trade Tesla stock through CFD trading instruments such as TSLA, Nasdaq (USTEC), and S&P500 (US500) that allow speculation or hedging based on Tesla stock price performance. These instruments are typically available through brokers linked to a regulated exchange, ensuring access to real-time price action and execution.

Where can I find reliable Tesla stock price analysis before I trade?

For accurate Tesla stock price analysis, traders should monitor quarterly earnings, cash flow statements, and updates from trusted financial news sources and journalists with a good track record for accurate predictions—like many of our trading experts at Exness and on Exness Insights—and trading platforms where TSLA is actively traded or used for long-term investing strategies. 

How can I trade TSLA CFDs using technical analysis and indicators?

To trade TSLA CFDs effectively, traders often rely on technical tools and indicators such as moving averages, RSI, and MACD to identify entry and exit points based on price patterns and market momentum. After you register with a trading platform, you’ll need to open a live account, deposit money into the account, and ensure you have sufficient equity to cover margin requirements. Risk management is key—never trade with money you can’t afford to lose. Exness offers demo accounts for practice, allowing users to refine strategies before trading with real money.