NVDA stock forecast 2026: Can Nvidia climb higher?

Can Nvidia keep climbing after yet another blockbuster quarter, or is a pause before the next rally more likely? This deep dive into the latest Nvidia earnings report explores how strong AI demand, data centre growth, and technical signals could shape the NVDA stock forecast 2026.

Nvidia Corp (symbol NVDA) reported its earnings for the first quarter on 20 May: another smashing success, with the company’s performance beating estimates in almost every area except for gross margins and signalling that it expects ongoing strong growth. Here I’m giving a rundown of the results and what I think they mean for Nvidia’s direction in the next few weeks.

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Nvidia’s revenue last quarter beat expectations by about 2.5 billion USD, and EPS was up to 1.87 USD against the consensus of about 1.77 USD. Revenue from data centres specifically also increased by about 1.5billion USD, while the forecast for total revenue this quarter was up to 91 billion USD. The only main area where Nvidia’s performance missed slightly was gross margin, negligibly lower than the estimate at 74.9%, although still very high.

I know that Nvidia delivering a bumper earnings report isn’t really news in the last few quarters but this particular report makes it clear for me that the AI boom shows no signs of slowing down. The actual dividend was 0.25 USD which to me is a move in the right direction: if the real dividends paid continue to rise in upcoming quarters, demand for the stock from “normal” investors who emphasise cashflow as well as capital gains will probably rise.

Nvidia growth opportunities and risks: AI, CPUs, and supply chains

One particular standout for me was the commentary about demand for Grace (the line of AI-focussed central processing units), since logically I expect demand for these to continue to surge. Grace is less powerful but more efficient than most major competitors, such as Intel, so I definitely think that the current share of revenue for Nvidia’s CPUs, about 20 billion USD, is a key potential area for growth in the next few quarters.

Obviously, there are some potential warnings here. Around 92% of Nvidia’s revenue last quarter came from data centres, so if the current AI bubble does suddenly burst, there’s likely to be a big shock. Equally, if there’s no reasonably imminent solution to the conflict in the Gulf, I expect to see a more direct impact on supply chains for chipmakers and other companies not really mentioned in this context. Overall, though, that was a great quarter for Nvidia, and I’m looking forward to more positive results from data centres and edge computing in the next few quarters as gaming becomes progressively less important for revenue.

NVDA stock forecast 2026: Consolidation before the next move higher?

NVDA stock consolidated near 220 USD after a strong rally following the latest Nvidia earnings report, with traders watching support around 215 USD and upside potential toward 250 USD. Source: Exness Terminal

The muted response on the chart after earnings might suggest that various participants were expecting even better results than these, but I think this is questionable. “Buy the rumour, sell the news” is an observable phenomenon with earnings, as in many other areas, so I think the simpler explanation might be applicable here. Another important factor, I think played a role, is the sheer size of Nvidia’s market cap, it’s more difficult for the price to make a quick, strong movement unless the volume is really enormous.

CFD volume around the earnings report was certainly higher than the average in April, but I don’t think by as much as to suggest an ongoing retracement. Based on typical performance after the last several earnings reports, all of which were at least somewhat positive, I’d expect the price to continue a bit lower before starting to move up again. I think this is supported by the TA.

The price is currently testing the 20 SMA, so a bounce from the area around the 215 USD mark is certainly possible, although I don’t think that’ll happen immediately without a strong driver of some sort. There’s no longer an overbought signal from either Bollinger Bands or the stochastic oscillator. 250 USD seems like an obvious longer-term target, which I think could easily be reached this year, assuming the company’s fundamentals remain similar. However, in the near future, I’m also monitoring interaction with the possible support around 215 USD, since a break below there might reach all the way to 200 USD before recovering.

Final thoughts: What’s next for Nvidia stock?

For now, I think the focus remains on the overall performance of and sentiment on AI companies, but I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of a wave of euphoria across major markets if the USA and Iran do manage to sign a deal in the next couple of weeks. 

Disclaimer: This article reflects my personal views and analysis only and does not represent the views of Exness. It is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered trading, financial, or investment advice.