Yen under pressure: Oil spikes and Middle East tensions

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are intensifying pressure on the Japanese yen, with USDJPY approaching the critical 160 level. Surging oil prices and policy constraints are leaving the Bank of Japan with limited options to stabilize the currency.

Geopolitical tremors from the Middle East are sending shockwaves across global markets, and the Japanese yen is feeling the heat. As the USDJPY pair flirts with the critical 160 level, a threshold not breached since the last major intervention in July 2024, traders are watching with bated breath. The escalating conflict has created a perfect storm for Japan’s import-dependent economy, fueling yen weakness and backing the Bank of Japan (BOJ) into a tight corner.

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The oil shock: Japan's Achilles' heel

Japan's economic vulnerability is laid bare by its staggering reliance on imported energy. The nation sources approximately 87% of its energy from abroad, with a massive 95% of its crude oil coming from the Middle East. With around 70% of this oil transiting the now-precarious Strait of Hormuz, the risk of a severe supply disruption is palpable.

The conflict has already pushed Brent crude past 100 USD a barrel, and some studies warn that a prolonged crisis could see prices spike to 150 USD. For Japan, this translates directly into a higher import bill, which threatens to widen the trade deficit and stoke inflationary pressures. This imported inflation is particularly painful, as it erodes consumer purchasing power without being driven by robust domestic demand.

The intervention dilemma

The yen's sharp depreciation has pushed the USDJPY exchange rate into what many consider the BOJ's intervention zone. The 160 mark is a significant psychological and historical level that has previously triggered direct market action from Japanese authorities. However, intervention is a double-edged sword.

While selling dollars to buy yen can provide temporary relief, it is a costly battle against market fundamentals. The primary driver of yen weakness remains the stark interest rate differential between Japan and the United States. As long as the BOJ maintains a low interest rate while other central banks, notably the US Federal Reserve, hold rates higher, the yen's path of least resistance is blocked. Furthermore, with the yen's traditional safe-haven appeal fading amid these domestic economic pressures, the currency is losing a key pillar of support during times of global uncertainty.

The Bank of Japan's policy bind

This situation leaves the Bank of Japan in an unenviable position. The central bank is widely expected to keep its policy rate on hold at 0.75% in its upcoming 18 March meeting. Hiking rates to defend the yen could risk derailing a fragile economic recovery. Conversely, standing pat risks further yen weakness, which would exacerbate imported inflation and could un-anchor inflation expectations.

Bank of Japan interest rate on 28 February 2026. Source: Trading Economics 

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Final thoughts 

For traders, this complex interplay of geopolitics, energy prices, and monetary policy creates a volatile but opportunity-rich environment. The key focus remains on the USDJPY 160 level and any verbal or direct intervention from Tokyo. The longer the conflict in the Middle East continues, the greater the pressure on Japan's economy and its currency, making the yen a crucial barometer of global risk.