Exness market pulse - week 29
15 July 2024

Paul Reid
Financial Journalist at Exness
Share
The markets are buzzing with activity, and staying ahead requires a keen eye on the headlines shaping our financial landscape.
Let’s dive into the key events influencing the markets and pinpoint where we should focus our attention to make more informed trading decisions in the coming week.
Global Economic Indicators
USA
Let’s talk about the global economy first. The US is showing strong GDP growth, fueled by consumer spending and a solid job market. The US GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.0% in Q1 2024. Unemployment rates are at 3.6% as of June 2024, which is fantastic news. This indicates a resilient economy that’s likely to keep the dollar strong and US equities attractive.
Exness Assets Affected: Forex Pairs Involving USD: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD.
EU
Over in Europe, it’s a different story. Germany, the powerhouse of the Eurozone, is seeing a decline in industrial production. Germany’s industrial production fell by 1.5% in May 2024. The broader Eurozone is grappling with sluggish growth, creating a bit of uncertainty around the Euro. Meanwhile, China’s post-pandemic recovery is slower than many expected. China’s exports dropped by 7.5% year-on-year in June 2024, and domestic demand isn’t picking up as quickly as hoped. This impacts global trade and commodity prices, so keep an eye on these developments.
Exness Assets Affected: Forex Pairs Involving EUR: EURUSD, EURGBP, EURJPY. Indices: DAX (Germany's stock index) and other European indices. Forex Pairs Involving CNY: USDCNY. Commodities: Copper, Oil (USOIL), and other industrial metals.
Central Bank Policies
Fed hikes
The Federal Reserve in the US is hinting at potential interest rate hikes. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points in its latest meeting, bringing the rate to 5.25%. This move aims to control inflation without stalling economic growth. Higher rates usually mean a stronger dollar and could lead to increased market volatility.
Exness Assets Affected: Forex Pairs Involving USD, EUR, and CNY: EURUSD, USDCNY. Gold (XAUUSD).
ECB dovish
Across the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB) is taking a more cautious approach, maintaining low-interest rates to support recovery. The ECB has maintained its key interest rate at 0.0%. This dovish stance could weaken the Euro further. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is trying to strike a balance with targeted stimulus measures to boost their economy without overheating the market. The PBOC recently cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5% to stimulate lending. Each of these moves by central banks can create ripples across global markets, so stay tuned to their announcements.
Geopolitical Tensions
Russia-Ukraine
On the geopolitical front, tensions are high. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to disrupt energy supplies, especially natural gas, causing significant ripples in European energy markets. The ongoing conflict has led to a 15% increase in natural gas prices in Europe over the past month. Over in the Middle East, ongoing conflicts are contributing to oil price volatility, something that directly impacts energy traders. Oil prices have fluctuated between $70 and $75 per barrel due to tensions in the Middle East.
Exness Assets Affected: Commodities (Energy): USOIL. Forex Pairs Involving USD and Safe Haven Assets: Gold (XAUUSD), USDCHF.
US-China
And let’s not forget the US-China trade relations. Diplomatic disagreements and trade tensions between these two giants are affecting market sentiment and global trade flows. Recent tariffs imposed by the US on Chinese goods have affected trade volumes, with a 10% decrease in bilateral trade in Q2 2024. This is particularly significant for sectors like technology and agriculture, which are heavily influenced by trade policies.
Exness Assets Affected: Forex Pairs Involving USD and CNY: USDCNY. Stocks of Companies Affected by Trade Policies: Technology and agricultural sectors.
Where to Focus Your Attention
US assets
So, where should you be looking to make your next move? Economic data releases are gold. US reports on non-farm payrolls, CPI, PPI, and retail sales give us a clear picture of economic health and potential market directions. In Europe, keep an eye on GDP and industrial production reports. Watch for the Eurozone’s Q2 GDP report, which is forecasted to show a 0.3% growth. For China, their trade balance and PMI figures are crucial. China’s manufacturing PMI for June 2024 was 49.0, indicating contraction.
Exness Assets Affected: Forex Pairs: US non-farm payrolls (NFP), CPI, PPI, and retail sales reports impact USD pairs. European GDP and industrial production reports influence EUR pairs. China’s trade balance and PMI figures affect pairs involving CNY and commodities.
Europe
Central bank announcements are another critical area. The Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates can create significant market shifts. The ECB’s policy updates are essential for understanding the Euro’s trajectory, and PBOC’s actions give us insights into the Asian markets and commodities.
Conclusion
Lastly, geopolitical news can’t be ignored. Developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East tensions, and US-China trade negotiations can lead to sudden market changes. Staying informed about these events helps you stay ahead of the curve.
Don’t underestimate the power of technology. Advanced trading platforms and analytical tools can provide you with real-time data and insights, helping you make more informed decisions.
Explore Exness assets and markets
Practice trading with our various assets from leading global financial markets with the same conditions as on live trading accounts.
Try free demoRelated
Exness Trade app
Trade with confidence anytime, anywhere.
Trading is risky. T&Cs apply.