Weekly data July 15: oil and gold price review for the week ahead

15 July 2024

Antreas Themistokleous

Exness trading specialist

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Get ready for an epic week in the markets with key economic data set to drive USOIL and XAUUSD. Keep an eye on Canadian and British inflation, UK unemployment, and the ECB's interest rate decision.

Key economic data:

Tuesday:

  • Canadian inflation rate

Wednesday:

  • UK inflation rate

Thursday:

  • UK unemployment rate
  • ECB interest rate decision
  • Japanese inflation rate

USOIL analysis

The dollar has strengthened, and Treasury yields have risen as investors bet on a potential Trump victory. Oil prices have maintained significant gains this year, boosted by OPEC+ production cuts and increased fuel demand during the Northern Hemisphere's summer. The Chinese Communist Party’s Third Plenum this week will outline the nation's key economic and political strategies, offering insights into the growth outlook of the world's largest crude importer. China's demand for raw materials, including crude oil, has declined in the first half of the year, sparking concerns about overall demand while GDP growth has dropped to its lowest rate in five quarters.

Technical analysis:

oil chart july 15.png

  • Resistance
  • Current price
  • Indicators

Gold-dollar analysis

Gold prices weakened due to USD buying support, but bets on a Fed rate cut in September supported the metal. Political uncertainty after an alleged assassination attempt on former President Trump also limited losses. The US Dollar's recovery was partially due to the Producer Price Index rising in June, while dovish Fed expectations may cap gains. Additionally, China's economic uncertainty, mainly missing GDP expectations, validated a positive outlook for gold.

Technical analysis:

  • Resistance
  • Indicators
  • Expected move

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