Is bitcoin's latest bounce the start of a real uptrend, or just another head-fake? Here's how tracking the 200 SMA, Fibonacci levels, and volume helped cut through the noise in August 2026.
Technical analysis (TA) is one of the prime tools in a trader’s arsenal, giving most of us directional signals and, perhaps most importantly, information on when to enter and exit trades. In this week’s Trading Talks, my colleague Antreas discusses a range of setups and indicators with Stanislav Bernukhov, one of Exness’ most experienced technicians. In this article, I outline my technical approach for trading bitcoin in August 2026, but for the full discussion and details, please watch or listen to the podcast.
Key takeaways
- Technical analysis works differently for crypto. Bitcoin's fundamentals matter less for forex or commodities, but trends tend to be stronger and last longer once they form.
- The 200 SMA break was the key confirmation signal. Price wasn’t added until it closed above the 200-day moving average on 20 August with strong volume.
- Volume needs to confirm the move, not just accompany it. A single high-volume up day (19 August) wasn't enough on its own—the breakout only mattered once follow-through volume showed up.
- Fibonacci levels help set expectations, not certainty. The 61.8% retracement near 58,000 USD flagged a potential bottom, and the 38.2% level near 84,000 USD is now the next resistance to watch.
- Trailing stops are a personal choice, not a rule. They worked well in this specific setup to lock in gains, but the article is clear that not every trader needs or benefits from using them.
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Why technical analysis works differently for crypto
“Crypto doesn’t have fundamentals” is, in my opinion, a demonstrably false statement because of how they correlate with stock markets, influence from monetary policy and macro data like the NFP report, ETFs, supply and demand, and the wide range of onchain data available. But I think we can say that fundamental analysis is, in the broad sense, less important for cryptocurrencies compared to “traditional” CFDs like forex, commodities, indices, etc. That’s what makes this week’s discussion between Antreas and Ian even more practical compared to a focus on TA applied to forex or gold.
As a general rule, cryptocurrency trends tend to be stronger and often last longer compared to trends for forex majors. Momentum is usually higher, partially because there’s usually more public “hype” around crypto than “traditional” instruments. Equally, though, some aspects of TA don’t really work when trading bitcoin, notably saturation.
Summary:
In short, TA carries more weight for bitcoin than for traditional CFDs because crypto trends tend to run stronger and longer once established. That said, not every classic TA principle transfers cleanly to crypto markets.
My step-by-step approach to trading bitcoin with TA
With some exceptions depending on the circumstances and market conditions, I usually use the following system to find a bitcoin trade using TA:
- Count the number of new highs and lows: if there are three or more, there’s probably a trend I could trade.
- Evaluate any patterns on the chart, both traditional and candlestick, to confirm or reject the direction.
- Look at the main moving averages (usually 100 and 200) and Fibonacci retracements, if any: If they’re close and “blocking” the direction I’m considering trading in, I’d abandon the idea or wait.
- Briefly study volume: does it confirm or reject the buy or sell idea?
This is quite a simple system overall, but it usually works well for me when I manage risk reasonably well. You can find more information in other Exness Insights articles that cover these specific factors, including patterns.
Bitcoin's 200 SMA breakout: A real example
Bitcoin started to bounce strongly around 19 August 2026, seemingly breaking out and possibly starting a new uptrend. Rather than jump into a trade immediately, I tried to apply my simple system to determine the most appropriate move.
For much of the summer, bitcoin seemed to be in a sideways trend, which didn’t give me any clear opportunities for a longer-term trade. I thought the lows around the 61.8% monthly Fibonacci retracement in the 58,000 USD zone might be a double or triple bottom. This left me expecting the next trend to move upward, but I was unsure when it would occur.
Some traders might point to average true range (ATR) here and say that this indicator reaching a new bottom means that a new trend is likely, since volatility can’t stay close to zero for long. The logic is sound, but I don’t support this approach because I find it unreliable in isolation. However, this seems to be an example of it working.
19 August was a large up day with a spike in buying volume, but I thought it was too early to add to my buying position since it wasn’t confirmed whether the price would break through the 200 SMA. Then, on 20 August, it clearly broke above the 200 SMA with higher volume, so I added to my buying position and checked my trailing stops for both trades. I think the next important resistance on the daily chart as of 21 August might have been the 38.2% monthly Fibo sitting slightly below 84,000 USD.
Summary:
This case study shows why waiting for confirmation—not just a single strong day—mattered before adding to the position. The 200 SMA break combined with volume gave a clearer signal than either indicator alone.
Where technical analysis falls short for crypto
The most important limitation of TA, in my experience, is that it’s much less reliable when used in isolation from fundamental analysis. I always monitor overall market conditions, sentiment, and any other relevant major factors before making a trade. For example, rising selling pressure on bitcoin exchanges would make me pause even if the technical setup looked clean.
Trailing stops are kind of a hot topic among traders since some of us (like me) love them while others hate using them for various reasons, some of which I concede are entirely reasonable. I personally find a trailing stop in the kind of situation shown above for bitcoin really useful in reducing stress and preventing a successful position from retreating into loss or much lower rolling profit. Using a trailing stop as a platform function or moving a static stop into profit works very well for me, but I acknowledge that every trader’s different, so if trailing stops don’t work for you, don’t use them.
Summary:
Technical analysis is most useful as one part of a broader view, not a standalone decision-making tool. Tools like trailing stops can help manage risk, but they're a matter of personal preference rather than a universal rule.
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Final thoughts
A new perspective can be valuable for almost anything, but especially for TA, in my experience. So I’m excited to watch and explore the views Antreas and Ian share in this week’s Trading Talks. Tune in for top tips from a technician with nearly 40 years of practical experience applying TA to a range of markets. If you're weighing up the bigger picture beyond this single case study, my colleague Christopher's bitcoin price analysis for 2026 covers the broader debate over whether this is a real recovery or a bull trap.
Disclaimer: This article reflects the author’s personal opinions and not those of Exness. Nothing here constitutes financial or trading advice, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
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